Bitcoin has just passed its eighth birthday, and its price has finally broken through its all-time high in one fell swoop (8,000 RMB). Let me post a Weibo message to mark the occasion.
Today I went to Tsinghua to do a trial lecture, and tomorrow I’ll be at Beijing Normal University giving my postdoctoral exit report. My exit and hiring paperwork are finally nearing completion, and seeing the news of Bitcoin’s new high at this moment is, I suppose, quite fitting. Though I say that in a celebratory spirit, I’m actually rather wistful, because throughout 2016 my judgment on Bitcoin’s market was “buy, buy, buy,” and in just the past week or two I even blurted out words like “the time to buy with everything you’ve got.” When facing old questions like “So how’s Bitcoin doing?”, I couldn’t help but hype it up a bit.
But in fact I myself did not go all in and buy with everything I had. That’s because my job is not yet settled, and without economic independence I can still only stick to my own principle of small, regular purchases and refuse to borrow against the future. This is a matter of principle: even if I believe that buying Bitcoin has at least a 99% chance of being a sure win within a few months, as long as there remains that 1% of unpredictable risk—and if that risk is unacceptable to me—then I will not take the gamble.
The logic of Bitcoin itself is also anti-borrowing and pro-saving. As a sincere believer in Bitcoin, I abide by my own extremely conservative risk-control principles, and there’s nothing much to regret; it’s just that I do feel a bit wistful… Yes, I have repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin is the best choice for people who are extremely conservative in their investment philosophy, rather than for those who are extremely wild and reckless. Buying Bitcoin requires not the slightest bit of madness or adventurism; it only requires calm, reason, and fear of risk. Many people see Bitcoin as a new route through storm-tossed seas, whereas I see it as a safe harbor for personal wealth. Everything about it is so simple, clear, and secure.
Of course, there are times when I also wonder whether I am being too conservative, so recently I gathered a little courage and played around with leverage, borrowing a bit of leverage on Huobi to increase a long position. In fact, I only had less than 3 coins in principal deposited, and at most I only borrowed twenty or thirty thousand RMB. Even for that small bit of risk-taking I eventually backed off. When talking with my parents, I accidentally mentioned the function of leverage and got dissuaded for a while (they thought the interest was too high), so I shrank back and turned around to return everything beyond the interest-free voucher portion (I exited as early as the day before yesterday at around 7,300-plus, and by then it was already 8,800-plus). So now I feel even more wistful…
In any case, let it be as fate wills. I don’t want to look back and re-leverage or buy back in any more. Since it has already surged to a new high, the 99% sure-win window has already passed. We must not forget that the controversy over Bitcoin’s block-size expansion still has not settled into dust, and the five ministries or N ministries could at any moment come out and stir up trouble. Although in the long run Bitcoin has no ceiling, when it comes to the next few months I no longer have such a definite view.
So my advice is this: those who once listened to my hype and bought Bitcoin can now sell off part of it, take back your principal, and buy yourself some peace of mind. As for the remaining Bitcoin, just forget about it for now and wait at least another four years before looking at it again. And for friends who listened to my hype but never bought Bitcoin, it’s not too late to buy now—of course, it can’t be with everything you’ve got anymore; the logic of investing spare cash in regular installments is that you can start at any time.
Translated from the Chinese original with AI assistance. The original text is authoritative.
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